Inventories saw a draw of 2.2 million barrels when a build of 1.3 million barrels was expected. Added to the dollar's drop, this led to a strong session for crude and products. Latest figures on demand were positive as was the report on refinery utilization and both of these would seem to lead to higher prices. This should confirm the move to $90 crude as more positive economic data is reported. Whether higher prices will lead to decreased demand is yet to be determined. After 5 down days, the market seemed to find a new road.
Today, crude +$1.84, $85.85, gasoline +2.46 cents, $2.3326, distillate -2.77 cents, $2.2419. Street steady at $2.649.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
April 13, 2010
After hitting a high of $86.41 on the Tuesday after Easter, crude prices have fallen five consecutive days. The actual amounts the price has dropped is not significant, but cumulatively, $2.90 in five trading session may be dripping slowly but it is still a descent of prices. Lower demand and oversupply are still the reasons why prices have fallen. At $84 crude stands on the high side of the price range but now it is falling.
Tomorrow's government report on inventory will be market indicator that decides where prices will go the rest of the week.
Today, crude -$0.43, $84.01, gasoline +0.75 cents to $2.3080, distillate -0.82 cents, $2.2142. Street steady at $2.649.
Tomorrow's government report on inventory will be market indicator that decides where prices will go the rest of the week.
Today, crude -$0.43, $84.01, gasoline +0.75 cents to $2.3080, distillate -0.82 cents, $2.2142. Street steady at $2.649.
Monday, April 12, 2010
April 12, 2010
Crude fell for the 4th consecutive session with the high levels of inventory and continuing decreased demand on analysts' and traders' minds. Today's fall of the dollar would normally signal an opportunity to buy but fundamentals of supply and demand were more top of the mind.
Today, crude -$0.33, $84.44, gasoline +1.49 cents, $2,3005, distillate, +0.19 cents, $2.2224. Street at $2.649.
Today, crude -$0.33, $84.44, gasoline +1.49 cents, $2,3005, distillate, +0.19 cents, $2.2224. Street at $2.649.
Friday, April 9, 2010
April 9, 2010
The fall is small but for the third consecutive day, crude fell. With inventory increasing for three months and demand therefore not increasing, traders and analysts are reevaluating their market positions. Refiners have upped their production in anticipation of greater demand but gasoline futures prices although increasing are not rising at the level of crude. There is also concern that higher prices will dampen economic recovery and thus petroleum demand. The dollar was also stronger today as the euro fell due to the continuing financial meltdown in Greece.
For the week, crude -$0.13, to $84.77, gasoline -3.84 cents, to $2.2856, distillate -1.45 cents to $2.2205.
For the week, crude -$0.13, to $84.77, gasoline -3.84 cents, to $2.2856, distillate -1.45 cents to $2.2205.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
April 7, 2010
Inventories increased higher than expected for both crude and distillate while gasoline stocks rose higher than expected. Refinery utilization was up but not enough to overcome suspicion that demand remains weak.
There are numerous factors to consider at this point not just demand and inventory: the rise of the dollar and the decline of the euro, the switch of refineries to greater gasoline production versus distillate, and the drop of the crack spread. The market futures graph shows contango for pricing going into the outer months which normally means traders expect prices to fall in the near term.
Today, crude -$1.15, $85.76, gasoline -3.81 cents, $2.3129, distillate -2.71, $2.2415.
There are numerous factors to consider at this point not just demand and inventory: the rise of the dollar and the decline of the euro, the switch of refineries to greater gasoline production versus distillate, and the drop of the crack spread. The market futures graph shows contango for pricing going into the outer months which normally means traders expect prices to fall in the near term.
Today, crude -$1.15, $85.76, gasoline -3.81 cents, $2.3129, distillate -2.71, $2.2415.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
April 2, 2010
Prices for product and crude rose slightly but the significance is that they rose. There is news of the improving national and world economy that has been touted for months but there was no talk of the dollar's movement. Manufacturing activity is on the uptick. Demand for product remains weak and inventories continue to rise to levels not seen in four or five years. This causes analysts to be cautious because the fundamentals remain the same: lower demand than last year.
Market is closed today because of Good Friday. It should make Monday's trading activities fairly interesting.
Today, crude +$0.49, $84.90, gasoline +0.29 cents, $2.324, distillate +2.15, $2.1955.
Market is closed today because of Good Friday. It should make Monday's trading activities fairly interesting.
Today, crude +$0.49, $84.90, gasoline +0.29 cents, $2.324, distillate +2.15, $2.1955.
April 1, 2010
Crude rose to its highest level in 18 months and it was all about the dollar. It was not about inventories as stocks rose but in the near term demand is not likely to increase greatly because 23,000 jobs were lost in March when 50,000 were supposed to be created. This was apparent when the figures for consumption showed a 2% fall from last year. It seems obvious that imports are increasing the crude inventory and refineries are betting that demand will increase and it is better to build product inventory now than produce higher cost product at a later date.
Prices are steadily moving up now as utilization remains around 80% while the refineries that are open are making money where as last year the expectations were that prices would continue to fall after rising so high in the spring and summer of 2008. The triggers for automated trading are looking at the numbers but don't seem to be looking at the underlying reasons for the inventory numbers. Of course the other reason is where do you invest if the dollar is falling and commodities are the better bet.
Yesterday, crude+$1.90, $84.51, gasoline +4.22, $2.3211, distillate +6.75, $2.1955. The distillate number is bad for the economy when you think about trucks and airplanes paying for higher priced product.
Prices are steadily moving up now as utilization remains around 80% while the refineries that are open are making money where as last year the expectations were that prices would continue to fall after rising so high in the spring and summer of 2008. The triggers for automated trading are looking at the numbers but don't seem to be looking at the underlying reasons for the inventory numbers. Of course the other reason is where do you invest if the dollar is falling and commodities are the better bet.
Yesterday, crude+$1.90, $84.51, gasoline +4.22, $2.3211, distillate +6.75, $2.1955. The distillate number is bad for the economy when you think about trucks and airplanes paying for higher priced product.
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