October 17, 2011

German officials expressed uncertainty on whether a solution could be found for the sovereign debt problem and the Fed revised August GDP numbers to reflect zero growth. Concurrently this stopped a string of increases for crude. More attention will be paid on China's announcement of its economic activity tomorrow.

Today, WTI -42¢, $86.38; Brent -$2.45, 110.17; RBOB -8.18¢, $2.7429; HO -4.22¢, $3.0136.

October 13, 2011

For the second straight day, crude futures fell, if slightly. WTI followed equities but also reacted to the greater than forecasted inventory build. Product inventories saw a draw but that was because refinery utilization was trimmed 3.5% due to falling demand.

Today, WTI -$1.34, $84.23; Brent -25¢, $111.11; RBOB +.088¢, $2.7575; HO +3.67¢, $2.9714.

October 12, 2011 - Anniversary of Columbus landing in the New World

Prices were being pulled up by the decline in the dollar and the rise of equities but were also being dragged down by the news coming out of the Federal Reserve Open Market Meeting where a lot of concern about the economy was raised. However, today's settlement was the first decline in six sessions, if such a small dip can be considered more than a sidelong move, but also was the third consecutive session of sideways movement. It may be that $85 is about as high as the market will allow WTI to go.

Today, WTI -24¢, $85.57; Brent +63¢, $113.36; RBOB +0.11¢, $2.7487; HO +3.06¢, $2.9347.

October 10, 2011 - Anniversary of the Battle of Tours

Analysts are trying to find any positive news that will get prices moving up and today that piece of positive news was the pledge by Merkel and Sarkozy that the sovereign debt problem would be solved. This solution has been in the works for over a year with no end to the problem but the pledge was enough to raise crude 2.9%. Since today was the Columbus Day holiday, trading was light. The increases for crude and products was also probably due to the fall of the dollar as the euro strengthened.

Today, WTI +$2.43, $85.41; Brent +$3.25, $108.95; RBOB 4.77¢, $2.6953; HO +4.51¢, $2.9039.

October 7, 2011 - Anniversary of the Victory at Lepanto

Crude moved up slightly from Thursday but showed a large increase from the middle of the week and a more moderate increase from last week's settlement. The gyrations and volatility of the market are the result of prices following events in Europe, primarily the seemingly inevitable Greek sovereign debt default that Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy are trying to avert. However, the problem is Greece. The Greeks are unwilling to pay taxes but they do wish to enjoy their lifestyle especially highly paid retirement. Merkel and Sarkozy now have more problems as Italy and Spain were given credit downgrades yesterday.

Early in the trading day, the Labor Department announced the creation of 103,000 new private sector jobs but the unemployment rate was unmoved at 9.1%. Then came the news that 45,000 of those new jobs were actually old jobs at Verizon being filled by returning stikers and the jobs picture did not look as promising.

For the week, WTI +$3.78, $82.98; Brent +$3.32, $105.70; RBOB +2.16¢, $2.6476; HO +6.4¢, $2.8588.

October 5, 2011

Inventories normally build in the fall as refiners have extra stock from the summer but refiners kept inventories low this summer anticipating low demand. Today's EIA inventory report shows draws for crude, gasoline and diistiilate and that led to big increases in price. Automatic Data Processing published a report that private sector payrolls were up 91,000 jobs in September. ADP is more reliable than the government statistics that are always being revised upward after the initial release.

Today, WTI +$4.01, $79.68; Brent +$2.50, $102.37; RBOB +8.08¢, $2.5692; +5.32¢, $2.7766.

October 1, 2011

The specter of a major economic downturn caused by Greek sovereign debt default overcame slightly good news about U.S. manufacturing and construction starts. Greece seems inexorably headed towards default and an economic crash can only be averted by action from the German government to support the banks that are owed money by the Greek government. However, the overall fundamentals of the oil markets haven't changed as the American economy continues to head toward a double dip recession and joblessness maintains a position above 9%.

Today, WTI-$1.59, $77.61; Brent-67¢, $101.71; RBOB-11.5¢, $2.511; HO-4.195¢, $2.7529.