WTI reversed course after three days of increases and fell 1.1% in yesterday's trading. Bad economic news came in two forms: the first time claims for unemployment was up by 10,000 job seekers; and, GDP growth was an anemic 1.8%, even less than the non-stellar 2.2% rate that the Commerce Department had forecast. The dollar's fall only cushioned crude's fall from an even lower settlement.
Yesterday, WTI-$1.09, $100.23; Brent+12¢, $115.05; RBOB+3.21¢, $3.0483; HO+0.26¢, $2.9829.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
May 25, 2011
Crude has struggled to stay above $100/barrel this month. Today, despite the rising inventories and falling demand, crude and product prices all rose and WTI led the way. The dive that the dollar is taking is overcoming market fundamentals but it remains to be seen whether prices can continue to rise when demand is falling and supply is abundant.
Today, WTI+$1.73,$101.32; Brent+$2.47,$114.93; RBOB+2.34¢,$114.93; HO+7.06¢, $2.9803.
Today, WTI+$1.73,$101.32; Brent+$2.47,$114.93; RBOB+2.34¢,$114.93; HO+7.06¢, $2.9803.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
May 24, 2011
The dollar weakened throughout the day and Goldman Sachs has started talking up prices again. There was a report about China not doing as well as expected but Goldman talking up the price similar to what they did in 2008 and the years prior to that led to traders buying higher.
Today, WTI+$1.89, $99.59; Brent+$2.36, $112.46; RBOB+5.47¢, $2.9928; HO+6.26¢, $2.9097.
Today, WTI+$1.89, $99.59; Brent+$2.36, $112.46; RBOB+5.47¢, $2.9928; HO+6.26¢, $2.9097.
Monday, May 23, 2011
May 23, 2011
The sovereign debt problem in Greece has resurfaced. WAdded to the Greek problem was the news that Spain's voters threw the Socialists out in the latest election, the ability of Europe to solve the debt crisis is once again in doubt. This led to the euro's fall and the dollar's rise and the subsequent drop for crude.
Today, WTI-$2.40, $97.70; Brent-$2.29, $110.10; RBOB+0.23¢, $2.9381; HO-7.12¢, $2.8471.
Today, WTI-$2.40, $97.70; Brent-$2.29, $110.10; RBOB+0.23¢, $2.9381; HO-7.12¢, $2.8471.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
May 21, 2011
This is the month that you need a longer perspective about prices than just what happened yesterday and all the events that occurred that led to the way prices moved that day. In just the settlement amounts the past three weeks there was high of $113.56 and a low of $96.91; there were six days in which the price was above $100 and 9 days when the price was below $100. Obviously there are many factors tugging and pulling at the market and influencing prices and what analysts say out loud may not be how they are acting.
The positives have been that demand seems to be picking up and the rise in refinery utilization has been tracking that increased demand. The euro and the dollar continue to do their dance and there are no long term movements as the Fed continues to inflate the economy and weaken the dollar while Europe has significant sovereign debt problems that sap the strength of the euro. It did not help that one of Europe's top financiers involved in getting the sovereign debt problems fixed was literally caught with his pants down.
For the week, WTI-16¢,$99.49; Brent-$1.44,$112.39; RBOB-13.86¢,$2.9358; HO-2.39¢,$2.9183.
The positives have been that demand seems to be picking up and the rise in refinery utilization has been tracking that increased demand. The euro and the dollar continue to do their dance and there are no long term movements as the Fed continues to inflate the economy and weaken the dollar while Europe has significant sovereign debt problems that sap the strength of the euro. It did not help that one of Europe's top financiers involved in getting the sovereign debt problems fixed was literally caught with his pants down.
For the week, WTI-16¢,$99.49; Brent-$1.44,$112.39; RBOB-13.86¢,$2.9358; HO-2.39¢,$2.9183.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
May 19, 2011
Today was full of bad news. Politically, Obama sold out Israel with a call for a return to the pre-Six Day War 1967 borders. Economically, the index of leading indicators dropped, as did the sales of existing homes in April. The Federal Reserve of Philadelphia's index of general business activity fell to 3.9 from 18.5 and was at 43.4 not too long ago. Japan's GDP shrank 3.7%, greater than expectations. Even AAA estimates less auto travel over the Memorial Day weekend, a less than auspicious way to start the summer travel-by-car season. About the only good news that was published was that new jobless claims fell by 29,000. However, those numbers are frequently subject to revision and it remains to be seen if that has any real effect on the market.
Today, WTI-$1.66, $98.44; Brent-88¢, $111.42; RBOB-2.95¢, $2.926; HO-1.12¢, $2.8947.
Today, WTI-$1.66, $98.44; Brent-88¢, $111.42; RBOB-2.95¢, $2.926; HO-1.12¢, $2.8947.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
May 18, 2011
All the market signals are bullish. Falling inventories for crude and product, increased demand and utilization, reduced imports and continued unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. Multi-dollar shifts every day have been common in May as volatility seems to be writ large this month.
Today, WTI+$3.19, $100.10; Brent+$2.31, $112.30; RBOB+3.62¢, $2.9555; HO+6.08¢, $2.9059.
Today, WTI+$3.19, $100.10; Brent+$2.31, $112.30; RBOB+3.62¢, $2.9555; HO+6.08¢, $2.9059.
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