NYMEX settled above $92 while Brent settled at nearly $101 in today's trading. The uncertainties caused by the popular unrest in Egypt and the potential for problems with moving crude and product through the Suez Canal are on the minds of many analysts. Despite assurances of more supply from OPEC should the Canal closure cause disruption, there are extra time and costs associated with moving crude and product around the Horn of Africa. There is also the political problem because Mubarak has been a staunch ally of the U.S. and has stayed the course on peaceful relations with Israel for over 30 years. A government takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood or a political group closely aligned with Islamists would change the balance required for peace in the region.
Prior to the recognition of the escalation of protests in Egypt, prices had fallen to $85.63. The daily settlement price for the near future will represent the market's analysis of the Egyptian problem. For the month, crude +$2.34, $92.16; gasoline +9.94¢, $2.4906; distillage +26.23¢, $2.7468.
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