The conflict in Libya now seems to be headed towards a prolonged struggle and the fight is now at production and marine terminal sites as well as near a refinery. Should fighting continue and affect those facilities, the damage may be unrepaired for an extended period of time and use up spare capacity currently available. Ghaddafi has proven he is not willing to go into exile and continues to bring in foreign mercenaries to fight the rebels. He has also shown a willingness to bomb these facilities from the air while NATO dithers about setting up a no-fly zone. The biggest fear is that the unrest will erupt next in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Nigeria is scheduled to have elections in April and violence could erupt there to stymie the flow of crude.
Today: WTI +$1.15, $105.45; Brent -92¢, $115.04; gasoline -3.92¢, $3.0043; distillate -2.06¢, $3.0655.
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